Elites and the Rest of Us

As you may have noticed, I've been doing a Monday recap of my training from the previous week. I'd like to keep that up, because it gives me a chance to reflect on what went right/wrong in the week's training, and a chance to pass that wisdom onto you.


Last week's workouts (week ending 5/19)
Running - x4 (20.29 miles total)
Cycling - N/A
Core - x2
Strength - x1
Foam rolling - x4
Salt bath - x1

My workouts felt pretty good. My run on Friday was at a 7:13/mi pace and my run on Sunday was at a 7:05/mi pace. I'm not quite sure where the speed came from, but I'm not really complaining either. My right quad felt a bit tight after my run on Sunday, but I think the side leg raises, clam shells, and salt bath helped that one out.

Running Celebrities
More exciting than my speedier training runs -- I met Kara Goucher on Saturday at the Portland Rock 'N' Roll Half Expo. (For those of you who don't know, Kara's an Olympic runner, and a fellow Portlander to boot.) Thanks to Twitter, I learned that she'd be speaking at the Expo on Saturday. So I showed up, just expecting to hear her talk. What I didn't expect was that she'd be doing an autograph and photo op after her talk.

In honor of the "pics or it didn't happen" saying...

I'll be honest -- the runner nerd in me was a bit starstruck. Fortunately, that didn't last very long.

But back to her talk. It was interview-style -- some guy (I have no idea who he was) asked her questions about her running career for about 30 minutes, then he took a break so that the audience could ask questions (this was about 10 minutes), and then her husband and son joined her on-stage to discuss the career-family balance for a few minutes.

Her solo portion of the talk was excellent! A few highlights:

-She had tried other sports, but running was the first one that felt natural. In her words, "Running was the first sport where I didn't have to think."

-Elite runners, like the rest of us, have good races and bad races. Sometimes (e.g., her 2007 World Championship 10K), the elements are going to all come together, and the race will feel incredible (and possibly surreal). But in some races (e.g., 2009 Boston Marathon), she's given it everything she can and has fallen short of her goal. She was initially disappointed by missing a goal she felt was realistic, but then she asked herself, "Now what? What can I take from this to become a better runner?"

-You're not always going to meet every goal. But that doesn't mean you shouldn't set your goals high. Setting high (but realistic) goals for yourself keeps you challenged.

I really felt like I could relate to her. For me, running just felt...right. What's more natural than putting one foot in front of the other?

And like her, I've had good races and bad races. My surreal race was Chicago -- I crushed my half-marathon PR by 5 min, and my full-marathon PR by 13 min. I remember thinking "Holy $#%@, did that just happen?!" when I crossed the halfway mark, and just being floored when I crossed the finish line and saw 3:11 on my watch. And my bad race? Eugene. I was disappointed that I didn't achieve a goal that I felt was realistic, but looked at my performance to try to find ways that I could improve as a runner.

Once I felt like I could relate to her, I began to think that maybe the elites are a lot like the rest of us.

Career Thoughts
As you may know, I'm finishing up grad school in a month and am hunting for a job. This job hunt has forced me to consider what kind of career I really want. And what I'm realizing is that I want to be involved in coaching in some way. The idea of helping others live healthy lifestyles and become better runners appeals to me. And now that I have a point A and a point B, how do I get from A to B?

Any tips/leads for getting into coaching?

Random Observations

I was catching up on Facebook this morning, and one of my friends posted a photo from a recent 10K. He's grimacing in said photo, and captioned it, "Worst Race Photo Ever." I told him to go look at my photos from Eugene, because my expressions definitely look worse than your standard grimacing.

That scrunched up look on my face? I think I might've been trying to fix my contacts. Or I might've been ready to clock someone. Yeah, we'll just go with the latter...

And my all-time favorite for "Worst Race Photo Ever"...

Mere yards from the finish line. I look like I'm ready to eat someone's head off, and my friend described my hand gesture as "devil horns" (that's actually my gesture for "Rock on," but I could see why she'd think devil horns).

(For more ridiculous race photos, go here.)

Last week's workouts (week ending 5/12):
Running - x3 (14.18 miles total)
Cycling - x1 (8.6 miles total)
Core - x2
Foam rolling - x4
Salt bath - x1

Each run felt better than the one before it. I'd like to credit the foam rolling for helping me work out the residual kinks in my legs. We've also had some fantastic running weather! (Perhaps a bit on the warm side, but if you know me, you'll know that I'll sooner complain about it being too cold than too warm.) Maybe that had something to do with my quality runs.

After two weeks, I think I can say that I've recovered from that race. Which is good, because my thesis defense is officially scheduled, and God knows I'll probably end up doing some stress running between now and D-Day! And/or stress eating. Either way, I better watch out for cortisol. That crazy B...

One thing I noticed during my recovery was that my appetite seemed to decrease tremendously. Not that I'm complaining (it's a nice change from the peak of my training, when my appetite was insatiable), but when you're used to the insatiable appetite, it feels weird to go for hours without wanting to eat anything.

I had a random discovery during Thursday's run! While running on my usual path along the South Waterfront, I looked around at the trees (rather than the path ahead), and noticed palm trees! Yes, palm trees in Portland! I've run on that spot dozens of times, and can't believe that I never noticed them before Thursday. (If they're fake, don't burst my bubble. I'm happy just thinking that I live somewhere where palm trees are present in nature.)

Anyone else have a moment where you've been somewhere numerous times before noticing some minor/major detail?

Looking Down from Above

Have you ever spent months working on a big project, and felt burned out before the project even ended? Or drained and worn-out because of how much time you invested in it?

That's how I was feeling post-Eugene. Don't get me wrong, I love running. But between Eugene '12, Chicago '12, and Eugene '13, I've been in training mode for the last 16 months. And being in training mode for that long is just draining. (You like that rhyming there?? No? Alright, I'll just go in the corner and laugh to myself then.)

You know what else is taxing? Training for a goal and not meeting it. After missing the BQ (Boston Qualifying) standard in Eugene, my first thought was to sign up for a summer marathon so I could get one last chance to try to qualify for Boston '14 (the cutoff is in September). However, I felt that I needed a break before I could even think about starting training for another marathon. I wanted to get my head in the right place before I start the next round of training (which, in case anyone's wondering, it's the Marine Corps Marathon in October).

My time off from running allowed me to catch up on my life and wrap my head around the race. 

I finally went to First Thursday for the first time (after living here for a year and a half)...

A whole exhibit on chickens! Only in Portland... (Go watch the first episode of "Portlandia." I would post the clip, except it's unavailable on YouTube.)

Mural in the Pearl. Even on my break from running, I can't escape Pre!

I caught up with plenty of friends (which may or may not have entailed happy hour and brunch), and went to a fine Cinco de Mayo festival (just fine though -- what kind of CDM fiesta has Chinese food for sale??). I also worked on my thesis, which needed to happen because I hadn't devoted as much time to it as I should have due to marathon training.

I also wanted to take a step back to find out what I did wrong so I (hopefully) don't make the same mistakes in Marine Corps. After all, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."  Thank you all for your comments and advice! Would you believe that this was the first time I've ever taken a good, hard look at my running to see how I could improve?? Once I took a step back, I felt like I was on the roof of a building and getting an aerial view of the sport of running and my race history. And in a way, life in general.

-I had delayed runner's high. Not qualifying created a runner's low (if there is such a thing), but once I broke past that and started appreciating the PR, the runner's high set in. And to be honest, part of me is still amazed that I ran a 3:08 marathon.

-I have an issue with pacing. I get too excited at the start of the race, fly through the first half of the marathon, and then have to slow down in the second half. Steven had a wise suggestion for preventing this -- start in a slower corral.

-After reading Kat and Erin's comments on my fueling, I thought about my fueling strategy, and realized that it was quite flawed. For some brilliant reason, I thought that two gels (220 cals altogether) would be enough for 26.2 miles when I had been consuming that many calories on my 20-21 mile runs. Furthermore, I didn't consume anything in the final 10K, when I was probably in greatest need of glycogen.

-Runners typically prioritize the races on their calendars, and one way of doing so is by classifying them as A, B, or C races. The most important ones are A races, and the least important ones are C races. If I shell out money for a race, I want to do well in it, and so it becomes an A race. I know that after a marathon wears you out, it takes a while to get back to normal. For that reason, I don't schedule races for a few weeks post-marathon. (Except for free, untimed fun runs -- those are my C races.)

-Marathon training is like a job, in that it consumes a large amount of time. (Between warm-up stretching, running, cool-down stretching, foam rolling, long run planning, pre- and post-long run food prep, etc., I wouldn't be surprised if training took up at least 15 hours/week.) If you're going to perform your job to the best of your ability, you need some time off. I'm not talking about 1-2 rest days/week, because that's simply a weekend for the marathon training job. I'm talking about a full-fledged, leave-the-trainers-in-the-closet break that lasts multiple days. In a full-time job, you typically receive a block of paid time off that's meant to be used for recharging your batteries (or so that's my view). Why should marathon training be any different?

-More importantly, I concluded that I wanted to register for a summer marathon so I could have a do-over, and prove to everyone (but mainly myself) that I am capable of doing what they believe I can do. I thought that if I did that, then I could erase the sour memory that not qualifying at Eugene created. But  erasing the memory would mean erasing the whole experience. Maybe I didn't BQ. Maybe I spent the second half thinking that it was the worst race ever. But I set a new PR and learned so much from this race. And life isn't about erasing the bad events. It's about learning to take the bad with the good, and using both to become your best self.

--
(I should confess that I ended my complete break from running on Saturday so I could join the Front Runners for their Saturday morning fun run. I hadn't been able to join them for a few weeks, and so it was nice to be able to return to the group. I kept the run to a conversational pace, and it felt good.)

When Your Best Simply isn't Enough

Finally, the Eugene Marathon is done, and the race I spent 4 months training for is now a (not-so) distant memory. As I sit here to type this, so much is coming to mind, but I can't think of the words to describe any of it. So I'll just have to describe the events.

Saturday (Race Eve)
Erin, Erin's friend Kelly, my friend Ellen, and I left Portland Saturday afternoon to head down to Eugene. But first, we made a pitstop in Corvallis for an untimed 5K/10K that Oregon State University hosted in honor of Sexual Awareness Month. Kelly's former boss (Ann Marie) told her about the event, she told the three of us, and Erin and I decided that it'd be a good shakeout run. The four of us decided to do the 5K, while Ann Marie did the 10K. Erin and I stuck together, and ran about 9:00 miles for the whole thing. Afterward, the five of us went out for lunch in Corvallis, and then parted ways with Ann Marie so that we could get to Eugene.

For this year, they moved the expo from the Hilton to the Lane Events Center, and this year's expo was kind of a letdown. It was much smaller, and didn't have any out-of-the-ordinary vendors. On the plus side, none of us felt guilty about leaving after 20-30 min.

Bibs acquired. Ready for Sun!

We drove to Pre's Rock, and then headed to Ellen's parents' house (her parents were gracious enough to host me). We relaxed in their home until dinner time. Dinner consisted of pasta with homemade sauce, salad, and bread, followed by a few cookies and tea. All of it was delicious.

Around 8, Erin and Kelly left to drive to their hotel so they could get some sleep. I chatted with Ellen and her mom for a bit longer, and then headed downstairs to get ready for bed. While I was digging out my toiletries, I realized that I forgot my night guard (confession: I wear a night guard nightly because I clench and grind my teeth while I sleep). Of course I'd forget it when my anxiety is through the roof. Argh. Eventually, I fell asleep (around 9:30 -- crazy early for me!)...and proceeded to wake up every two hours or so (after having some bizarre dreams).

Sunday (Race Day)
After that reasonably fitful rest, I woke up before any of the four alarms I set went off. I got dressed, and ate my breakfast of millet porridge (millet cooked in water, with dried cranberries, cinnamon and sugar, and honey) and orange juice. Ellen drove me to the start, and headed back home so she could meet up with her parents for their "cheer and bike" morning (cheer, bike to the next stop, and repeat).

Good morning, Eugene!

Once I got to the start, I checked my bag and met up with Erin. We chatted, and then ventured to the Porta-Potties (I don't know about her, but I had to pee, despite having peed before leaving Ellen's parents'), except we gave up on that because of hella long lines. So instead, we proceeded to our separate corrals.

I started my warmup routine when I got to the corral, but was a bit rushed because the start was less than 10 minutes away. I was able to do most of it (save the lunges). In the corral, I saw one of the PFR runners who was doing the half. Soon after that, the officials made the pre-race announcements, and the gun went off.

I planned on a 6:55/mi pace, and made a bracelet with the times when I needed to hit each mile marker. I hit mile 1 ahead of schedule, and saw Ellen and her family sometime between miles 1 and 2. Shortly thereafter, I came across a set of Porta-Potties and used one of them. (If I was going to be ingesting fluids, I needed to make some room or else I don't think it'd be very pleasant.) I made up that lost time by the 5K mark, and then went a bit faster than target pace for mile 4-7. I saw Kelly at mile 6, and Ellen's family at mile 7, which probably pushed me through those miles. They had the first banana table  around mile 8, and I grabbed one (for potassium).

Mile 8 brought the uphill that nobody was expecting. Seriously, it was a beast. But I saw one of the funniest signs on the course ("You've been training for this longer than Kim Kardashian's marriage"). By mile 11, I was kicking myself for going such a fast pace, and had no idea how I was going to finish. Because of that, I figured that mile 12 would be a good spot to consume my first gel. Shortly after that, they had the second banana table, and though I wasn't hungry for fuel, I decided to grab a piece for later. I started eating it around mile 14, except I felt nauseous and feared that I'd throw up if I ate any more of it, so I tossed it at mile 16. I also started ignoring my split bracelet then, because it had already started screwing with my mind. And just when I didn't want anyone seeing me looking like death, I saw Kelly. Around mile 17, I needed some more moral support, and saw Ellen's family again. At either mile 17 or 18 (I can't recall which one), my contacts started bothering me, and the left one felt like it was about to fall out. I had to tell myself that I can't control the elements, only how I respond to them (an old saying from CUA Crew). At mile 19, my stomach was ready to handle more Gu, so I took another gel.

I remember hitting mile 20 in 2:20 (~7:00 pace), and thinking that I still had a shot at BQing. During the last 10K, I just felt like shit and wanted the whole thing to end. (What kept me going was "Finish what you start.") - everything burned, and my knee ached a couple times going downhill. From miles 24-25.5, all I could think about was, "Get me off of this trail and onto the damn road!" After I got on the road, my thoughts switched to, "Get me to Hayward and get this shit over with!" I saw Ellen's family at mile 26, and didn't even smile (that's how badly I wanted that race to end). I missed the BQ and finished in 3:08:22, which is still a 3 min PR for me and a 16 min improvement over last year's race.

Reflection
Immediately afterward, I was drained and pissed. When I trained that hard to BQ, gave that race everything I had, and still came up short, I couldn't help but be let down. It didn't matter that it was a PR, or that it was my 5th consecutive marathon PR. I just wasn't in the mood to celebrate my race. But what was I supposed to do when everyone around me was saying, "Congrats! I'm so proud of you."? Get all pouty because even though it's the fastest marathon I've ever run, I still fell short of my goal? No, because I know what they'd tell me -- "You're being ridiculous," "Get over it," "PRing is still a huge accomplishment." So instead, I spent Sunday celebrating Erin's massive PR, and trying to convince everyone (myself included) that I was equally stoked about my own PR and breaking 3:10 (though I probably failed at this one because I'm not a great actor). When I posted the results to DailyMile later, I stated, "I don't want to belittle any of my accomplishments today (because a PR is always worth celebrating), but when you give a race your all and still come up short, it's bittersweet. Does that make any sense?" After posting that, I decided that the best thing for my mood would be to get some sleep.

I woke up to some positive comments, which were along the lines of "Congrats on the PR!" and "A PR is always worth celebrating!" However, my friend Steven somehow knew exactly what I needed to hear:

"I can imagine you're probably sort of in a middle-ground between being proud of a new PR but also disappointed that you didn't get your BQ. This is natural, but I hope that the achievements of the new PR outweigh everything else. You've made such big jumps as a marathoner in the past two years, and I think when you take into perspective how many minutes you've chopped off in the past several marathons you should be even more proud of what you accomplished at Eugene. Keep it up. The BQ will come."

At that moment, I looked at the big picture. Suddenly, the race was no longer about what I didn't accomplish, but about all that I have accomplished. Over the last 2.5 years, I've shaved 25 minutes off of my marathon PR (nearly a minute per mile). Two and a half years ago, I never would've thought that I could break 3:10. Yesterday, I did it. And when looking at the progress I've made so far, I can't help but be amazed and proud.

Lessons Learned
While the end time was great, there's definitely room for improvement. In true coaching fashion, I'd like to reflect on what went wrong this time so I know what to improve for next time and (hopefully) get that BQ.

1. Starting out way too quickly - This is a horrible tendency that I've had in all of my marathons. I get excited, start out really fast (and don't seem to slow down, despite my repeated pleas to myself to do so), and then positive-split the second half. After looking at the stats, I realized that this was my second-most evenly run marathon (the second half was less than 7 minutes slower than the first half). I'm getting better at pacing, but I still need to be a bit more conservative in the first half.
2. Letting my nerves get the best of me - I had that bracelet on to tell me when I needed to hit each mile. But as soon as I couldn't hold that pace, I started beating myself up because my race plan fell apart and I felt like the BQ slipped away from me much earlier than it did. I think that me telling myself "Don't let your nerves get the best of you" helped, but I think I also need to remember "It ain't over until it's over."
3. Poor fueling strategy - When I ran Chicago, I participated in the Gatorade Sports Science Institute's study on GI issues during exercise. I just re-read their results, and compared to the other participants, I took in less fluid and carbs during exercise and felt more discomfort. This time around, I think that my GI issues were worse (I don't recall how bad they were during Chicago, but I know that I didn't feel like I wanted to throw up). Maybe I didn't take in enough fluid or carbs during the race? Or maybe bananas during the race aren't good for my system? Or maybe I should've taken in carbs during the last 10K? Either way, I need a better strategy.

What do you think I could've done differently? What recommendations do you have for future races?

The Mental Game

With less than a week to go until Eugene the Sequel, I can’t help but think about Race Day. I’m currently feeling a whole slew of emotions, and turning another year older isn’t helping that fact. (Yes, my birthday and Race Day are within a week of each other.)

I’m nervous because I want to qualify for the Boston Marathon, and shooting for such a lofty goal scares the shit out of me. Running 26.2 miles in 3:05 just seems hella fast. Yes, I know it’s only six minutes faster than my Chicago time, but entering “Club BQ” puts one in this different class of runners. Boston may have recently become synonymous with “tragedy” (no, we’re not discussing that topic right now, because the news and watching coverage for two days after the event depressed me to the point where I can’t handle following the situation), but to me, it still symbolizes “prestige,” “speed,” and “elite.” And the pedestal I’ve placed it on has made this goal seem so formidable.

What makes me even more nervous is that I feel like I have a real shot at it this time around, and I’m afraid of blowing it. During this training cycle, I’ve had a 15K and a half-marathon PR, and have logged more miles (and faster miles) than ever before. I’ve felt more support and encouragement during this training cycle than ever before (thank you, Twitter and dailymile). And while all of that excites/motivates me, I’m also worried that I’ll get overexcited on Race Day, start out way too quickly, and then burn out in the second half. (This is one of my goats.)

I’ve also put more emphasis on diet during this training cycle. I’ve tried to clean up my diet by eating more whole (i.e., plant-based) foods and drinking less alcohol. And up until a few weeks ago, I’d like to think that I did a fairly good job of that. Then, I had one of my best friends from NYC visit me, which involved drunch, wine tasting, and enough sugary treats to make us call her visit “Diabetes Weekend”.

Drunch. Regular mimosa for her, grapefruit mimosa for me.

Wine and cheese party at home. (This may or may not have been a daily event for us.)

Moonstruck desserts. (Hey, Moonstruck's a Portland staple. Gotta check it out while visiting!)

Columbia Gorge Wine Tasting event. 

After that, I fled to SoCal to visit friends and family, which, so far, has involved drunches, wine tasting, and loads of dairy and sugar. (We seem to use alcohol and sugar to bond.) Long story short, I’m just worried that these last few weeks of poor food choices have screwed me over.

I’m freaked out, and when I get freaked out, I feel ready to jump out of my skin. Such urges make me want to run, which would be good and well if I weren’t in the midst of tapering. It’s times like these I wish I had another means to deal with my emotions. (Writing can be effective, except I’m barely making any sense to me, so I can’t imagine that I’m making sense to anyone else.)

I need to stop psyching myself out. I’m excited to race because I feel like this is the culmination of 16 weeks of hard work. I’m especially excited because I’ll have some incredible friends running and watching. And while it makes me incredibly nervous, the goal of qualifying for Boston fires me up. Plus, the weather forecast currently looks great (knock on wood).

What I’m realizing is that taper mode is when the training focus shifts (or should shift) from the physical aspects of racing to the mental aspects. At this point, I’ve done everything that I can do to get ready for this marathon. As we’ve established, I’m happy with how my training has gone. But now, I need to calm myself down so I don’t let my nerves get the best of me. For that, I have a few sayings:

-“Keep calm and rock the f*$& out.” (Thank you, Erin for that one.)

-“You got this.” (I’ve read that using “you” in a mantra is more effective than using “I” because it makes you feel like someone’s alongside you providing support.)

-“Let’s make the most of tonight, like we’re gonna die young.” (Thank you, Ke$ha. Your songs may be ridiculous, but they are catchy, and this one helped get me to a sub-1:30 half-marathon.) 

Run of the Irish

Fun Fact #1: Adidas' North American headquarters are located in Portland.

Fun Fact #2: Adidas is the major sponsor of the Shamrock Run, which is the largest running event in they city. (Yes, I'm just as shocked as you that it's not the Portland Marathon.)

Fun Fact #3: I ran the Shamrock 15K (there's also an 8K and a 5K).

The race started at 7:30, but because I'm a nut, I set my alarm for 5:15. Of course, I hit snooze a few times, and it dawned on me around 5:45 that I had to get up for this race. Despite my idiot move error, I still had time to eat my pre-race millet porridge and do my dynamic warmup.   

I arrived around 7:15, and my first thought was, "I paid money to give up sleeping in on a Sunday? #runnerprobs". It was freezing around the start (about 41, felt like 36), and the first time since last year's Shamrock Run that I opted to race in tights.

I saw my friend Jeff enter the starting corral, and chatted with him before the start. After the US and Irish national anthems (yes, they played the Irish national anthem), the race started. I had planned on shooting for an average pace of 6:40-6:45. Due to bottlenecking, etc., I hit the first mile at 6:53 (which I expected - the first mile is usually slower than goal). By mile 2, I felt a little more warmed up, and I ran that one was 6:40. Mile 3 brought this gradual uphill through downtown. I knew it was coming, but it still slowed me down (mile 3 = 6:52). At that point, I might've let my nerves/slightly stiff legs/slower pace get the best of me, because my mile 4 split was 7:28 (and the big hill didn't even come until the mile 4 marker). 

Miles 4-6 brought the Terwilliger hill, which I knew was going to be a bitch. 

During the 5th mile:
Jeff: *passes me on my right*
Me (upon seeing this): (to myself: Aw, hell no!) *surge ahead*
Him: I saw that.
Me: Don't think I didn't see you pass me.

He passed me again, then I passed him again, and we were neck-and-neck until the top of the hill, at which point I used that downhill to my advantage. From there on, I told myself that I just needed to beat my official 15K PR (1:04:54; my 15K split from the Chicago Marathon). After mile 7, I told myself, "Only 16 minutes," and after mile 8, "Only 10 minutes." That last mantra also made the nauseating bacon scent easier to deal with. (I kid you not, some guy dressed as the devil was handing out strips of bacon.) Eventually, I saw the finish line and went for it.

My hands were so cold/numb when I crossed the finish line that it took me a few seconds to stop my Garmin (#raynaudsprobs). Got my chip clipped off (yes, despite being such a large race, they still use plastic shoe chips), got my finisher medal, and turned around to see Jeff cross the finish line.

I had the time from my Garmin, but I still wanted the official results because that's what counts. After waiting roughly 6 hours, the official results were posted: 1:04:03 (6:53 min/mi). Overall, I gave it what I had, and this was an 8+ minute improvement over last year, which I'm quite happy about. Furthermore, it was a 53 second improvement from the first 15K of the Chicago Marathon (which was much flatter). Still, I feel a bit disappointed. Disappointed that I let my nerves take over during miles 3-5. Disappointed because based on the numbers, my splits from those miles are what killed me. But the more I think about it, I realize that these are just lessons for future races, and goals for future 15Ks.

If You Can Dream It...

Recently, I told one of my PFR teammates about the Kaiser Half (aka, Operation 1:30), and he asked me about the sub-3:00 marathon. Running sub-3 is on my bucket list, but I've thought of it as a secondary goal to the elusive BQ. (It seems less scary/more feasible if I make 3:05 my "A" goal, and make 3:00 my "A" goal for a future race.) After Operation 1:30, I started wondering if 2013 could be my year to do it. Still, I erred on the side of conservatism and figured I should stick to my original plan.

Fast forward to this morning. It’s the end of the term, and to top it off, I have thesis deadlines looming. To say that I’m stressed is a bit of an understatement. (On a scale of 1-10, I’m currently ranging anywhere from 9-15, and have had about 7 "I'm losing it" moments in 24 hours. But that's another story.) Naturally, these were the main things on my mind when I set out for my 5M run this morning. After about 2 miles, I decided to ignore my Garmin and just run. (I’ve run the route dozens of times and know how long it is.) Somewhere along the Eastbank Esplanade, my thoughts drifted away from my thesis and to the sub-3 marathon. Which led me to wonder, “Would it be crazy if I tried to do that in Eugene?” 

I ended my entry on dailymile with “Am I crazy here for thinking about running a BQ-5 when I haven’t BQed yet?” A few hours later, my friend Erin commented with some very encouraging words and advice. Her advice: “If your fitness indicators point to that as a capability right now, man, don’t think twice...particularly if everything is right on race day.” 

For the analysis (because I'm a math nerd, and clearly, analyzing data for a thesis project wasn't enough), I decided to look up race time predictors, and make a prediction based on the Kaiser Half (that’s my most recent race). I’ve used McMillan’s before, but wanted something else to serve as a comparison, so I found the Runner’s World Race Times Predictor. Based on that race time, McMillan predicted a marathon time of 3:06:17, and Runner’s World predicted a time of 3:04:33.

Okay, so that points to about a 3:05. But based on a 10K time from September (on a fairly downhill course), it told me I'd run Chicago (which was 4 weeks later) in 3:18, which was 7 minutes slower than my actual time. 

Compared to previous marathons, my training has felt really good. I'm not sure what my sweet spot was before, but now, it seems to be around 40 miles/week (based on my last few weeks of 38-45 miles/week). So long story short, predictions look good, and it's possible to beat estimates.

And now onto the mental portion (because as I've learned, there's a big mental game involved with racing). Do I think it's possible? Yes. Does the thought of running sub-3 scare me shitless? You bet. But the thought of crossing that goal off of my life's to-do list is nothing short of exciting. And as Walt Disney once said, "If you can dream it, you can do it."

Erin also sent me this fine graphic from the SF Marathon's Pinterest board: 

Sidenote: She only had a vague idea of how freaked out I was/am when she sent this. We're obviously on the same wavelength.

As I type this, I'm recalling my conversation with Erin, where she expressed hesitation about her goal, and I basically said to just go for it. Maybe now's the time for me to eat my words and say, "Fuck it; I'm doing this shit."

What are your thoughts?